While the bookies Attempt to avoid paying out and improve their soccer prediction procedures, we could find holes. The question is how. There is absolutely no one answer that is million dollars. There are one method is to analyze game info that is no measurable. Another method is to improve on prediction models. The Method requires you to analyze information like priority or match type, which is not utilized in models. One of the most prominent factors that might influence the outcome of a soccer match is,
Match type that could be an international or national league, a cup, or a friendly game. The punter that is educated and favorites can profit from gambling on the teams that are priced.
- Match priority. Each football prediction sites must define its priority for the coming matches, since team resources are limited. National cups are great examples for priority games’ teams.
- Match time is vital, since football predictions are usually inaccurate in the beginning and at the end of the season.
- Players’ accidents, illnesses and transports particularly in the cases of important players. Bookmakers’ odds are calculated before this information can be obtained.
- Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The French, Norwegian, Italian and Spanish leagues are considered predictable. The unpredictable are the German and English leagues at the end of the season and the beginning.
- Other variables are pitch requirements, team managers, match presence, weather conditions and, of course, pure possibility. To For each match would be a time consuming and complex undertaking analyzes that information. The alternate is to use advanced prediction procedures, which constitute an improvement on bookies’ prediction models.
Why can their versions be enhanced? When assessing bookies’ predictions it is easy to observe that their versions are based on figures. Low likelihood corresponds to groups with table positions and vice versa. It is apparent that the models’ accuracy suffers when team abilities change. Thus you can increase your profit by putting a bet on underdogs.
Second, the bookmakers’ models do not differentiate between the attacking and defensive strengths of football teams and do not take into consideration that strategies are chosen by soccer teams when playing at home or away. As soon as you learn to differentiate between defensive and attacking strengths, it is simple to forecast the number of goals and beat the bookies.
Statistical Models which were developed over the last couple of years describe match results with respect to changing strategy and skills. Such versions are not used by bookmakers. Properly optimized and designed models can predict up to 70 percent of games, outperforming the bookies’ forecasts whose precision is lower.